aziam
24 posts
msg #102828
- Ignore aziam |
10/5/2011 2:47:18 PM
Barring a sudden collapse today it sure looks like a text book double bottom with a double measured move and a three bar reversal to boot.
Opinions?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #102830
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/5/2011 9:25:05 PM
Show me it on the weekly chart and I'll consider it. Otherwise it could well be a textbook snap-back rally during a downtrend.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #102831
- Ignore gmg733 |
10/5/2011 10:30:23 PM
Depends on your time frame. :)
Just a bounce for now, but long term trend is down now and money is to be made on the down side when the bounce peaks.
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campbellb75
101 posts
msg #102832
- Ignore campbellb75 |
10/5/2011 10:42:37 PM
According to Barry Ritholtz, "Following Fridays 90/90 day, we should expect a rally to last 4-7 days, before resuming the prior trend (lower)."
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olathegolf
119 posts
msg #102833
- Ignore olathegolf |
10/5/2011 11:00:46 PM
Take a look at the MACD(12,26,9) on the monthly S&P500 charts. Crossovers pretty accurately call the longer term trend. A good opportunity for the shorts.
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aziam
24 posts
msg #102836
- Ignore aziam |
10/6/2011 9:09:53 AM
I don't disagree that the long term trend is still down but my belief is that we have a 50/50 chance of returning to Septembers highs, at the very least. In my book, with good money management, its worth a punt. If I'm wrong, then I'll take the loss.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #102837
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/6/2011 9:23:03 AM
I don't disagree that the long term trend is still down but my belief is that we have a 50/50 chance of returning to September's highs, at the very least. In my book, with good money management, its worth a punt. If I'm wrong, then I'll take the loss.
++++++++
In what sport is punting not a loss? I think you have some serious resistance to overcome at 1175-1200 on the ^SPX. If it breaks above that, I think risk is mitigated somewhat. Until then, the more appropriate metaphor is that you are planning to drive the ball down the middle of the field against a serious ground defense.
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aziam
24 posts
msg #102839
- Ignore aziam
modified |
10/6/2011 9:47:06 AM
-------- In what sport is punting not a loss? I think you have some serious resistance to overcome at 1175-1200 on the ^SPX. If it breaks above that, I think risk is mitigated somewhat. Until then, the more appropriate metaphor is that you are planning to drive the ball down the middle of the field against a serious ground defense--------
In rugby union, punting is a skill that all outfield players could benefit from. That aside, your analogy may well be correct. Lets see how this plays out and how tough the defense really is.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #102877
- Ignore gmg733 |
10/9/2011 11:36:11 AM
In essence if you would ask yourself what is your time frame can you only truly answer the question.
People ask me what is a good stock to buy and I usually answer, what is your time frame? We got different answers which gives one an indication of the time frame which I feel differs from your time frame.
Regardless of trend at the moment, I am selling volatility. I really do not care which way the market goes.
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aziam
24 posts
msg #102897
- Ignore aziam |
10/10/2011 6:55:53 PM
In essence if you would ask yourself what is your time frame can you only truly answer the question.
People ask me what is a good stock to buy and I usually answer, what is your time frame? We got different answers which gives one an indication of the time frame which I feel differs from your time frame.
Regardless of trend at the moment, I am selling volatility. I really do not care which way the market goes.
Hats off t'ya...options fry my brains;-)
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