gmg733
788 posts
msg #131972
- Ignore gmg733
modified |
10/18/2016 12:01:00 AM
Kind of proves the contrarian theory of investing (provided the data is valid and not curve fit).
http://www.dark-bid.com/how-to-avoid-being-a-retail-bag-holder.html
Use late Friday or during the weekend.
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c1916
77 posts
msg #131985
- Ignore c1916 |
10/18/2016 10:50:04 AM
The 2X leverage chart seems disingenuous....if you apply leverage to a "winning" program, of course the results will be even more glowing.
Otherwise, I certainly don't mind attempts to simplify entry/exit points, but this one almost seems too simple. Wouldn't it make sense to EXIT the markets if the S&P is up for the week or down more than 3% for the week if those scenarios trigger negatively over the long term? Selling (or shorting) when the signal DOESN'T trigger would seem to be the proper play as well.
Also, it isn't clear if the scenarios simply had the user buying at the open at market prices on Monday when the signal triggers, or if there was other fine tuning on the entry point.
I'd be interested in looking at raw numbers instead of a chart. For example, given the 26 year sample, that's a little over 1000 weeks. So, how many weeks generated the signal, and how many of those weeks were winners? Conversely, how many weeks generated no signal, and how many of those weeks resulted in a loss?
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graftonian
1,089 posts
msg #132002
- Ignore graftonian |
10/19/2016 10:04:03 AM
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spauken
47 posts
msg #132009
- Ignore spauken |
10/19/2016 12:56:30 PM
I like simple systems, so following c1916's lead, I crunched the numbers in Excel for the last 10 years and here is what I came up with:
Total trades 140 (in market 27% of the time)
Winners 88 (62.9%)
Losers 52 (37.1%)
Total gain 38.5% or 3.85% per year
Needless to say, not very impressive over the last 10 years. 2008 was a big down year at -28.5%. All other years were positive except 2010 at -3.48.
Changing the parameters to -.25% and -2.75% yielded better results:
Total trades 157 (in market 30% of the time)
Winners 99 (63.1%)
Losers 58 (36.9%)
Total gain 65.5% or 6.55% per year
2008 was -18.1%
Still not very impressive.
On the bright side, I did enjoy the superhero video attached to one of the BTFD articles!
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